Industry analysts are betting that moviegoing’s long, uneven recovery will take another meaningful step forward in 2026.

London-based forecasting firm Gower Street Analytics is projecting the global box office will reach roughly $35 billion in 2026, marking a second consecutive year of growth and the strongest theatrical showing since before the pandemic. The estimate would put worldwide grosses about 5% ahead of current expectations for 2025, though still below the $40–$42 billion annual average seen between 2017 and 2019.

“We predict 2026 will be the highest-grossing global year since 2019,” said Gower Street chief analyst Thomas Beranek, noting that growth is expected to be driven largely by markets reliant on Hollywood product.

A Slow Climb Back to Pre-Pandemic Norms

Even with the gains, the recovery remains incomplete. At current exchange rates, Gower Street estimates 2026 would still sit about 12% behind the pre-COVID average. The domestic box office is projected to reach approximately $9.9 billion, up 11% year over year but still trailing historical norms.

The international market excluding China is forecast at around $18 billion, representing modest growth but continuing to lag pre-2020 levels. China, the most volatile and difficult territory to forecast, is conservatively estimated at $7.1 billion, a slight dip compared with 2025 amid an unpredictable release calendar.

Regionally, Gower Street sees EMEA leading non-U.S. growth at just over $10 billion, followed by Asia Pacific (excluding China) at roughly $5.3 billion and Latin America at about $2.65 billion.

Franchise Power Returns to Center Stage

A key factor behind the optimism is a stacked, franchise-heavy 2026 release slate. Studios are expected to roll out new installments in major global brands including Avengers, Spider-Man, Toy Story, Star Wars, Dune, Super Mario Bros., Minions, Jumanji, Scream, The Hunger Games and Meet the Fockers.

The calendar also includes potential breakout non-sequels, from the Michael Jackson biopic Michael and Disney’s live-action Moana to new event films from Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey) and Steven Spielberg (Disclosure Day).

“There is an incredibly strong franchise-led release calendar for 2026,” said Gower Street’s Rob Mitchell, adding that audiences are likely to be “spoilt for choice.”

How Reliable Are the Forecasts?

Gower Street has become one of the industry’s most frequently cited box office forecasting firms, with its projections regularly referenced by outlets such as Deadline, Variety and The Wrap. The company works closely with established data providers, including Comscore, and uses proprietary modeling tools to simulate theatrical performance.

The firm points to recent accuracy as a confidence booster: its early forecast for 2024 landed within about 5% of the final global total, while its original 2025 projection is currently tracking within a narrow margin after revisions.

Cautious Optimism

Of course, there’s a degree of mutability to this number, and the numbers can still exceed or disapoint via external factors. Netflix continues to push it’s streaming agenda, and with the Warner Bros asset buyout by them, we may see this begin to change theatrical releases as early as next year. Until then, we can take Gower Street’s word as positive forecast.